Insight2020

Welcome to the 20/20 Insight forecasting contest!

The contest has begun!
Here, you will find everything you need to know about the competition. Which questions will you answer? How will your accuracy and reasoning be scored? How are the prizes given out and when? Start from the introduction and instructions on this page, and then read about scoring and prize allocation and see the questions.

Introduction
20/20 Insight is a contest and study in the science of forecasting. We are interested in the way people think about forecasting problems, and so, uniquely to this contest, you will be rewarded not only for your accuracy, but also for the quality of your reasoning. We hope it will be fun and engaging!

The contest includes 14 forecasting questions and one short psychological questionnaire. Ten of the questions will require you to predict and then elaborate on your reasoning. The last four 'tie-breakers' will require simple prediction. All 14 questions and the psychological questionnaire must be filled out in full in order to contend for the prizes.

You will have 10 days to answer the questions (until October 29th 11:59 PM). You can do this at your own pace, however, note that some of the prizes will also factor in how early you answered (read on in the Scoring and Prizes page). We estimate that the complete set of questionnaires should take you around 1.5 hours to complete. In this contest, you will not be allowed to fill in the same questionnaire twice, so make sure you carefully consider your responses.

Accessing the questions
The questions (see here) are hosted on the prediction community website Metaculus. Each question includes a short context and its criteria for resolution. At the top of each question post there will be a link to the survey. You must press that link and fill the questionnaire in order to participate. After completing each question, you will be sent an email verifying that your response was collected. Note: you do not need a user account in Metaculus in order to access the questions (though you can register if you wish). In the website, you can simply click on ‘Continue as Guest’. This will have no effect in the contest.

Click here to see the questions and start forecasting!

If you encounter any difficulty or have any questions, email Yhonatan at [email protected].

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20/20 Insight is a collaboration between Metaculus and Ben-Gurion University of the Negev