The questions
These are the questions for the 20/20 Insight forecasting contest. Click on the links to be taken to the questions. The questions are hosted on the community prediction site Metaculus. In each question post, you will find the context and resolution critera, and a link to fill out the survey. Remember that you must click the link and fill in the survey to participate. Note that you can access Metaculus without a subscription (just click 'Continue as Guest').
Links to questions:
1. Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?
2. On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?
3. Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?
4. By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?
5. By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?
6. Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?
7. Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?
8. Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?
9. By December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?
10. Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?
Tie Breakers
11. Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?
12. Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections
13. Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?
14. On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?
15. Background psychological questionnaire
These are the questions for the 20/20 Insight forecasting contest. Click on the links to be taken to the questions. The questions are hosted on the community prediction site Metaculus. In each question post, you will find the context and resolution critera, and a link to fill out the survey. Remember that you must click the link and fill in the survey to participate. Note that you can access Metaculus without a subscription (just click 'Continue as Guest').
Links to questions:
1. Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?
2. On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?
3. Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?
4. By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?
5. By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?
6. Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?
7. Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?
8. Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?
9. By December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?
10. Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?
Tie Breakers
11. Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?
12. Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections
13. Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?
14. On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?
15. Background psychological questionnaire
